Nifty - Point and Figure Analysis: February 2015

Sunday, 22 February 2015

Nifty P&F analysis : Consolidation, Resistance.. direction?

Consolidation phase!!
Date: 22nd Feb 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8833.6

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Status is same on this time frame. Trend is up but last pattern is High Pole bearish formation. Last two columns have ended within their previous column indicating broader range consolidation happening at the moment. Close above 8900 will trigger bullish direction and activate higher counts. Currently there is no signal for positional trades.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Resistance levels were discussed during last write up. Price has seen supply coming at Anchor Point zone. Trend is sideways at the moment and both side counts are active.

Bank Nifty (leader) is underperforming. Resistance is in place. Price consolidation happening between 8800 - 8900. Breakout awaited. Let it happen and pattern give us a trade. What is expected technically on Budget session at the end of coming week?... Thought full of noise!!

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Bank Nifty Relative Strength Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Sunday, 15 February 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Resistance coming? Medium term not bullish!!

Resistance coming? Medium term not bullish!!

Date: 15th Feb 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8805.5

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. We discussed during last write up that Support is coming and expected area was shown in the chart. It worked well and price witnessed sharp bounce. Chart is trading above trend line hence trend remains bullish. But last pattern is High Pole bearish formation hence there is no active trade at the moment. Next basic signal is awaited to form trading setup on this time frame. In simple words, there is no signal for positional trades at the moment.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Price traded some more below support levels discussed during last week and then bounced. The beauty of P&F charts is that pattern confirms such things to validate our analysis or assumptions and help us in timing the trades well. The chart generated bullish signals near support zone and formed mini bottoms with bullish trend lines. Trend is bullish at the moment on this time frame. Some resistance is expected around 8840 - 8870 which is near Anchor Point and Fib retracement levels of previous move. Again, this is the assumption and pattern near it will generate trading opportunities. Remain with 'X' till then.

Both time frame are bullish hence 'X' is trade able. But recent High Pole formation in Nifty and series of 'O' formed in Relative strength chart of Bank Nifty to Nifty (Figure 3) has made things not look very bullish to me. Normally a follow through happens and that's where the strength of the trend will be tested. The structure remains weak over medium term unless this setup gets negated.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Bank Nifty Relative Strength Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 8 February 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Supports coming, Medium term not bullish!!

Supports coming, Medium term not bullish!!

Date: 8th Feb 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8661.05

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Nothing much has changed in this chart. It remains bullish but as stated during last write up that 'X' is required to trade it which is yet to be formed. High Pole bearish pattern will occur if price closes below 8620. Previous top box values placed at 8600 - 8580 can act as a support for short term bounce. Lower time frame charts can help to trade them.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend remains down in this chart and vertical count of 8640 discussed during last write up is almost achieved. Resistance levels acted well and Nifty turned more than twice when it came around those levels. Counts of 8590 and 8565 are active on this time frame at the moment. 50% retracement of move from 8240 to 8980 box value happened during Jan 2015 comes around 8600 levels. Price may take support around 8600 - 8580 levels but trades cannot be placed on that assumption. We need price forming bullish pattern around that to make it a trade able setup.

Figure 3 is Relative strength chart of Bank Nifty to Nifty. Bank Nifty has been a leading sector in this entire rally and current column has produced maximum number of Os since Sep 2013. This suggests that Bank Nifty has underperformed Nifty and lead the current fall. It has also formed Triple bottom sell signal which is not a bullish sign. The structure indicates some weakness in overall market from a medium term perspective.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Bank Nifty / Nifty 0.25 x 3 Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 1 February 2015

Nifty Point & Figure analysis: Counts achieved..what's next??

Counts achieved..what's next??

Date: 1st Feb 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8808.90

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Upper counts till 8900 discussed during last write up has been achieved and stands closed now. Achievement of bullish count in an uptrend is not a bearish signal and indicate strength in the trend. Chart is bullish and trading well above trend line also above 20 column upper Bollinger Band now. Price going below 8620 will form High Pole and trigger exit signal for longs. Every 'X' before that would be bullish and give trading opportunities.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend has turned down on this time frame followed by an interesting horizontal formation. This setup allow us taking horizontal counts. Vertical Count of 8640 shown in the chart is only an established count and yet to be activated. Looking at left suggests that 8860 - 8900 is a resistance zone. 8900 is Anchor Point of the toppish formation.

Downside counts are open on lower time frames but trend is up on higher time frame. Short term traders should stay away till both show the same thing. Invest time elsewhere till then!!

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe