Nifty P&F analysis: Higher counts active, 7900 support!!

Higher counts active, 7900 support!!

Date: 1^st Sept 2014

Nifty last closing price: 7954.35

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily closing prices. Column of ‘X’ continued during last week. Count in the current column is 38 so far which means that price has gone up by 380 points without marking negative close of more than 30 points. Will it reverse from here? Medium and long term traders shouldn’t bother about such things. Short term traders can refer lower time frame charts.

Hourly Chart

Figure 2 is 10 box value chart plotted with hourly high-low prices. We have seen two bear traps around same level in this chart. Anchor point of this setup is at 7890 – 7900 levels that should act as a support zone going forward and first indication of reversal on higher time frame charts. Trend is up at the moment and ticks above 7970 will activate further upside counts.

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box value chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Price is trading above bullish line and higher counts are still active in this chart. Recent Mini –bottom is placed at 7920 levels which is near Anchor point of hourly charts. Ticks above 7970 will confirm previous higher counts and activate more column counts.

Trend remains up for all time frame traders. Higher counts till 8200 are active on the charts. 7910 – 7890 is the support zone for short term traders. Sell signal below the same would be first indication of column reversal on daily charts. Any fresh ‘X’ above 7760 is a pullback opportunity for medium term traders.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 60 min 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

  

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information. 

Nifty P&F analysis - 'X' controlling all time frames

'X' controlling all time frames

Date: 24th Aug 2014

Nifty last closing price: 7913.20

Daily chart

Chart 1 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily closing prices. Price never came below bullish line in this chart after a breakout in Feb 2014. I mentioned about setup near trendline in last write up. We have got bear trap bullish pattern that has formed higher mini-bottom. Higher counts are activated and open. High pole reversal level is at 7745 at current box.

Hourly Chart

Chart 2 is 10 box value chart plotted with hourly high-low prices.  Anchor Point that we have been discussing has worked wonderfully and actually in a bookish manner. Price bounced from that point and made new high. Non achievement of bearish count was another evidence of reversal. It has formed mini bottom at 7860.

1 Min Chart

Chart 3 is 5 box value chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Negation of bearish pattern that I mentioned in the last post worked nicely. That was the first confirmation of a trend reversal and indicated a support taken at anchor point of higher time frame (hourly chart). Rally generated higher counts that stand closed (achieved) now. 8055 will be activated if price trades above 7930.

Breadth & Volume Charts

Figure 4 is P&F chart of 10 day average of Advance Ratio. 35 – 50 band works well in this chart and patterns above or below this band give indications. Current setup is bullish and Advances turned up from lower band earlier this month. Figure 5 and 6 are 0.15% chart of Nifty OBV and Accumulation Distribution line respectively. Both charts are bullish and show the volume pattern that support prices.

There is uptrend in all time frames and ticks above 7930 will activate more counts. Bearish signal on lower time frames below 7860 will change the trend for short term traders. Any bullish setup above 7745 is an opportunity to trade long for medium term traders.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart Figure 2: Nifty 60 min 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart Figure 4: NSE – 10 d SMA of Advance Ratio 1% x 3 P&F Chart Figure 5: Nifty OBV 0.15% x 3 P&F Chart Figure 6: Nifty Accumulation Distribution line 0.15% x 3 P&F Chart

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis

Nifty P&F analysis

Date: 11th Aug 2014

Nifty last closing price: 7568.55

Chart 1 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily closing prices. Price remains above bullish line but bearish patterns have activated downside counts. It is more of a sideways and column consolidation pattern and price pattern near trend line would be interesting setup.

Chart 3 is 10 box value chart plotted with hourly high-low prices. Count of 7570 discussed during last write up has been achieved by the price. It also falls near Anchor Point level of the entire pattern and some support is expected around these levels but that needs to be confirmed by the price. A count of 7450 is opened up in this chart as well.

Chart 4 is 5 box value chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Price is trading below bearish line. Negation of the Triple bottom sell pattern would be the first indication of price taking support near Anchor Point.

 

Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 60 min 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 4: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

  

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis

Nifty P&F analysis

Date: 4th Aug 2014

Nifty last closing price: 7602.60

Chart 1 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily closing prices. Double Bottom sell signal in this chart was certainly a trigger for a medium term trader also to exit longs. It opened the small count of 7590 that is been achieved in the immediate column. Counts above bullish lines are considered weak but immediate achievement and overall formation has changed the trend from up to sideways.  Price remains above bullish line but a 6 column bearish trap formation has been formed

Chart 2 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily high-low prices. Sell signal occurred in this chart well along with a breakout horizontal count that signals 7420. But I would like to refer lower time frame charts for further examination.

Chart 3 is 10 box value chart plotted with hourly high-low prices. Last week chart is continued. Trap and high pole occurred at previous bearish formation levels confirming the supply. Activation of count of 7570 below 7740 was discussed in the last write up. It also falls near Anchor point of entire pattern hence reversal signal near that level would be an interesting setup.

Chart 4 is 5 box value chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. The count of 7710 acted nicely and price seen a sharp bounce from those levels which also took it above bearish resistance line. But follow through was failed and price again fell below resistance line. Waiting for signal after break helps a trader in scenarios like this. It formed the mini top that opened the count of 7610 which is already been achieved. ‘O’ is dominating the right side of the chart and price trading below bearish line hence in downtrend but near some support areas if looked at left. Price pattern confirming the reversal is always better than the falling knife.

 

Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 60 min 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 4: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

                      

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis of various time frames

Nifty P&F analysis of various time frames

Date: 28th July 2014

Nifty last closing price: 7790.45

Chart 1 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily closing prices. Triple bottom sell signal was negated by the price when it went above 7780. This is bullish action. Failure ratio of Triple bottom sell signal is revealed upon back testing when it occurs on closing prices.

Column has turned to ‘O’ which gives opportunity for higher bottom to be formed that can make long trades affordable.  

Chart 2 is 10 box value chart plotted with daily high-low prices. Column is not reversed because new high was formed by the price on Friday. It will change the column if price doesn’t make new high (box value) and trades below 7810 on Monday. Various upper counts are open which are shown in the chart.

Both the charts are bullish and column turning to ‘O’ is good news for the bulls in charts like this because they can provide affordable fresh trades. Note that waiting for column to turn to ‘O’ after triple bottom sell signal must have saved many bears when chart forms such vertical column of ‘X’. Lower time frame charts shown below can help the traders in trailing the stops when long columns are formed on higher time frames.

Chart 3 is 10 box value chart plotted with hourly high-low prices. It is interesting to see that first double bottom sell signal occurred on Friday at 7760 after forming the bottom at 7430 in this chart. That goes well with daily time frame charts. But this being high-low chart, I would like to see a follow through. Down side count of 7570 will be formed if Nifty falls below 7740. Even chart plotted with closing prices of same data (not shown) will generate sell signal if price closes below 7750 on hourly basis.

Though it is certainly a long exit signal, such corrections give opportunity for Mini bottoms to occur and activate more upside counts. Needless to mention a trade in P&F cannot be initiated unless basic patterns are formed.

P&F can help one ride the trend on all time frames.

Chart 4 is 5 box value chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Objective trend lines are drawn from various mini-bottoms that are formed at various levels. Various markings in the chart is enough to explain how every analysis that we do on higher time frame charts is equally applicable and effective on very lower time frames. It can help even to medium term traders in abstracting more information from data.

The chart in Figure 4 is plotted with more than 4000 data bars. That information alone is enough to explain why P&F is called the best method to remove noise from the data.

All charts shown here are 3 box reversal charts. 1 box value chart of 1 min data (not shown) shows 

interesting Fulcrum (reversal pattern) in making that suggests supports around 7750 and 7710 for the prices.

Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 60 min 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 4: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

       

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

  

Nifty P&F analysis: Nifty forms Mini Bottom, Make longs affordable!!

Nifty forms Mini Bottom, Make longs affordable!!

Date: 1st July 2014

• Nifty has formed Mini Bottom at 7500 when it closed above 7580 on last Monday
• This was Double top buy signal triggered after column ‘O’ took support exactly at previous column lower box value
• Nifty has also formed 6 column Bullish Bear Trap pattern with this
• Upside counts shown in Figure 2 and 3 have got activated

Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

                   

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis: P&F column squeeze, Basic signals can guide!!

P&F column squeeze, Basic signals can guide!!

Date: 19^th June 2014

High of 7700.05!! No, I am not that precise in targets. In fact achievement of a bullish count in an uptrend is treated as a bullish event. Nifty is trading around 7550 this morning after recording the high on 11^th June.

Figure 1 is 10 box value P&F chart plotted with closing prices. Interesting setup of column squeeze is developed in this chart. Call it triangle, sideways or anything else. This squeeze is expected to be followed by expansion. Price trend is up and trading way above bullish line.

Figure 2 is 10 box value P&F chart plotted with High Low prices. Price is trading above 20 column average line since breakout happened at 6300 levels. Circled area shows the price noise and intraday day volatility. Last several sessions must have been difficult for lower time frame traders.

This setup of column squeeze provides excellent opportunity to trade P&F basic signals of Double top buy and Double bottom sell. Various assumptions and analysis must be around to call it top or pull back. One side will be proved wrong upon price breakout. We want signal from price to follow. The narrowing columns make stop closure. Worry of breakout signal proving false or trap can be dealt by making column reversal as an exit strategy if breakout column happens to be long. Current range is 7640 – 7530 on closing basis.

 

Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart

 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.