Nifty - Point and Figure Analysis

Sunday, 3 May 2015

Nifty - Point & Figure analysis

Nifty - P&F analysis!!

Date: 3rd May 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8181.50

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Negative setup discussed during last week witnessed follow through with continuous double bottom sell pattern. Exit level is trailed further and placed at 8290 on closing basis at the moment.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is down at the moment but trade above 8210 will activate short term counts of 8270 and 8315.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Sunday, 26 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Price below 45 degree!!

Date: 26th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8305.25

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Price has gone below 45 degree line for the first time since breakout of 6330. Downtrend is established and setup has turned negative with open lower counts of 8120 and 7930. Double bottom sell signal followed by High Pole formation is signal to trade short. Stop for short trades is at 8430 at the moment. 'O's become dearer in downtrend and resistances are to be looked at instead of supports.

Figure 4 is backtested numbers of current negative setup below 10 column moving average in Nifty. It has worked 85% of time.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is down with Anchor points placed at 8405 and 8430 which are expected to act as resistance.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty dly candlestick chart

Image 1: Backtesting numbers of negative setup in Nifty

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 19 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis

Date: 19th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8606.00

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. All days remained in column of 'O' during last week. As discussed, column turning to 'O' after Bullish engulfing pattern is an exit signal for long trades. But current bearish column is still above mid value of previous column of 'X' hence last pattern is still bullish. Price closing below 8590 will form High Pole at current column and make it bearish. I don't prefer to short at High Pole but at subsequent signal. Hence chart is absolutely neutral at the moment for positional and medium term traders. Previous support of 8840 discussed during previous write ups has worked as resistance for this rally. Close above 8840 will activate the bullish count of 9600+. Close below 8340 will not only negate that bullish count but also breach 45 degree bullish line that will turn intermediate trend to down and enable short trades.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend turned down and breached 45 degree line earlier in the last week. Chart remained 'smooth' thereafter and continued with bearish setups. Lower time frame is bearish with open counts up to 8495.

In brief, charts are neutral at the moment for medium term traders and bearish for short term traders.

Figure 1: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 12 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Bullish Engulfing!!

Bullish Engulfing!!

Date: 12th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8780.35

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole turned to Bullish Engulfing pattern when price closed above 8730 meaning that current column of 'X' has completely retraced previous column of 'O'. This has made setup bullish from neutral. Interesting point with engulfing is that one can trade it with stop placed at column reversal meaning exit longs if column of 'O' occurs from here. This makes trade affordable. It is interesting to see that 45 degree objective line has not tested even for once since Nifty has given breakout above 6330. Mid value of current column is reference point for bullish pattern which is placed at 8570 at the moment. Bearish column that remain above this level will add strength to the bullishness because next buy signal will activate count from current column of 'X' that will indicate direction towards 9600+.

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. Price has again turned from lower band. Upper band is at around 8900 at the moment.

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is up and counts up to 8930 are open. Support seems around 8700 and bearish signals can be taken only below that level on this time frame.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 5 April 2015

Nifty P&F Analysis: Low Pole

Low Pole!!

Date: 5th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8586.25

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole occurred with close above 8530 that we discussed during last week. This has made setup neutral from bearish. Price has not breached 45 degree objective line hence downtrend is not established and low pole in a uptrend is a bullish setup. But I prefer fresh double top buy signal after low pole to go long. Price going above 8730 in current column itself will trigger a long call as well. Bears need this low pole to be negated for trading shorts.

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. It has turned multiple times from lower band in this uptrend and need to see if it will do it again to test the upper band.

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 8500 discussed during last write up achieved even during truncated week. Trend is up on this time frame. Currently it is testing the Anchor Point which may act as a resistance. Is this a nice affordable shorting opportunity? Should I short here being at Anchor Point? NO. Resistance is our assumption and we need to wait for pattern to give us a trade.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 29 March 2015

Nifty - P&F analysis!!

Date: 29th March 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8341.40

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Chart and pattern remain bearish as explained during last week. Shorts should remain in unless close occur above 8530 being mid value of current column that will form Low Pole. Fresh shorts should wait for next signal. 8290 - 8310 are Anchor Point levels that are possible support levels from here. But this is not very important to know rather looking for supports in downtrend is a harmful practice. Sticking to technique is more rewarding.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is bearish and various downside counts up to 8270 have been achieved by the price. Low pole formation occurred recently has activated upside count of 8500. Though upside counts in downtrend are not very reliable I think trade above 8375 will increase the probability of same getting achieved. Consolidating columns are likely scenario from here.

Someone asked me about current formation of Relative strength chart of Bank Nifty that I shared earlier. Figure 3 is 0.25% P&F Relative strength chart of Bank Nifty to Nifty. Bank Nifty is underperforming Nifty as discussed then which was major reason of bearish view over medium term. As shown in the chart, ratio going below 2.13 will indicate further underperformance from Bank Nifty.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Bank Nifty P&F Relative Strength Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 22 March 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Give it time!!

Give it time!!

Date: 22nd March 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8570.90

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Pattern is bearish at the moment being Double bottom sell continuation signal occurred after High Pole and Relative High. Bearish counts of 8410 and 8120 are active. As shown in the chart, price has come to 10 column lower Bollinger Band. A, B and C are instances shown in the chart of where price has taken support at lower band in this uptrend. Levels also coincide with the support placed at previous peak. It needs to be seen if price take support here though looking at the formation I doubt if it will make an important bottom here. Close above 8645 will form Low Pole and make chart neutral from bearish. Long signal will be triggered if price closes above 8730.

1 Min Chart

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Bearish count of 8560 has been achieved. Chart is bearish at the moment and lower counts are active. Recent price move within tight band that occurs at support area of higher degree chart indicate possibility of some sort of bounce. 8690 - 8720 are Anchor Point resistance area if price moves up from here. Trend and pattern at the moment are bearish.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe