Nifty - Point and Figure Analysis

Sunday, 17 May 2015

Nifty Point & Figure analysis: Triangle at Anchor Points!!

Triangle at Anchor Points!!

Date: 17th May 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8262.35

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Nifty observed strong supply and turned down exactly from 8330 level of Mini-top discussed in the last post. Mentioned that charts are neutral and I expect column consolidation which is what actually happening. Figure 2 shows that there is no trade signal in last 3 columns. They remain neutral at the moment with triangle formation in making. It will generate buy signal above 8330 and sell signal below 8120. Positive breakout in current column of 'X' will also form of Double top buy after Low pole that will open much higher counts. Trend is down being below 45 degree trend line and active lower count of 7930.

Basic signal after such kind of consolidating columns are worth taking. My observation is also that first breakout after such columns often prove false or witness sharp pullback. But idea is to follow every basic signal after breakout which should eventually give us directional move in favor. Chances of failure of first attempt are increased if more time is spent in the range (column consolidation) and when columns are wide.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is up on this time frame with open counts up to 8330. Trade above 8275 will trigger triple top buy.

Figure 4 and 5 are showing Anchor Points on daily and 1 min charts respectively.

Period on daily chart is of last one year for Anchor point. It is drawn from current top of 8830 on lower time frame. Anchor points are basically price levels where maximum activity is seen in that period. Both time frame Anchor points are around current levels where price has seen strong supply pushing back the prices. Breakouts will be interesting.

Trade is coming.. basic signals are tools!!

Fig 1: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

Fig 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

Fig 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

Fig 4: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

Fig 5: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Sunday, 10 May 2015

Nifty Point & Figure analysis: Mini top at 8330!!

Mini Top at 8330!!

Date: 10th May 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8191.50

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Reversal level of 8290 got triggered earlier during the week. And price turned down again by going below 8180 that generated fresh double bottom sell signal. The formation (Immediate sell signal) has marked Mini Top at 8330 which is trailed down from 8830. Chart will not turn bullish unless price closes above this level. Low pole formation at last column has called for exits to short trades hence trade signal is neutral at the moment. I expect column consolidation from here. Close above 8330 will also generate bullish engulfing formation that calls for long with stop placed at column reversal.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 8315 count discussed during last week got achieved immediately to my surprise. But trend resumed downtrend then and achieved all counts activated from Mini-tops as shown in the chart. Friday bullish engulfing column from box value 8000 marked the bottom and activated 8225. Trend has turned up on this time frame. Anchor point resistance is 8270 - 8280 levels and support is placed around 8070.

Interestingly, I saw only 4 charts were bullish among Nifty 50 on last Thursday on 1% box value. Bullish percent is P&F breadth indicator which calculates ratio of bullish P&F stocks in an index. Extreme levels are used for contrarian approach. 8% (4 from 50) indicates trend exhaustion. I am working on back dated entries and soon will present the historical Bullish percent chart of Nifty.

Fig 1: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

Fig 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 3 May 2015

Nifty - Point & Figure analysis

Nifty - P&F analysis!!

Date: 3rd May 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8181.50

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Negative setup discussed during last week witnessed follow through with continuous double bottom sell pattern. Exit level is trailed further and placed at 8290 on closing basis at the moment.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is down at the moment but trade above 8210 will activate short term counts of 8270 and 8315.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 26 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Price below 45 degree!!

Date: 26th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8305.25

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Price has gone below 45 degree line for the first time since breakout of 6330. Downtrend is established and setup has turned negative with open lower counts of 8120 and 7930. Double bottom sell signal followed by High Pole formation is signal to trade short. Stop for short trades is at 8430 at the moment. 'O's become dearer in downtrend and resistances are to be looked at instead of supports.

Figure 4 is backtested numbers of current negative setup below 10 column moving average in Nifty. It has worked 85% of time.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is down with Anchor points placed at 8405 and 8430 which are expected to act as resistance.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty dly candlestick chart

Image 1: Backtesting numbers of negative setup in Nifty

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 19 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis

Date: 19th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8606.00

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. All days remained in column of 'O' during last week. As discussed, column turning to 'O' after Bullish engulfing pattern is an exit signal for long trades. But current bearish column is still above mid value of previous column of 'X' hence last pattern is still bullish. Price closing below 8590 will form High Pole at current column and make it bearish. I don't prefer to short at High Pole but at subsequent signal. Hence chart is absolutely neutral at the moment for positional and medium term traders. Previous support of 8840 discussed during previous write ups has worked as resistance for this rally. Close above 8840 will activate the bullish count of 9600+. Close below 8340 will not only negate that bullish count but also breach 45 degree bullish line that will turn intermediate trend to down and enable short trades.

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend turned down and breached 45 degree line earlier in the last week. Chart remained 'smooth' thereafter and continued with bearish setups. Lower time frame is bearish with open counts up to 8495.

In brief, charts are neutral at the moment for medium term traders and bearish for short term traders.

Figure 1: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 12 April 2015

Nifty P&F analysis: Bullish Engulfing!!

Bullish Engulfing!!

Date: 12th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8780.35

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole turned to Bullish Engulfing pattern when price closed above 8730 meaning that current column of 'X' has completely retraced previous column of 'O'. This has made setup bullish from neutral. Interesting point with engulfing is that one can trade it with stop placed at column reversal meaning exit longs if column of 'O' occurs from here. This makes trade affordable. It is interesting to see that 45 degree objective line has not tested even for once since Nifty has given breakout above 6330. Mid value of current column is reference point for bullish pattern which is placed at 8570 at the moment. Bearish column that remain above this level will add strength to the bullishness because next buy signal will activate count from current column of 'X' that will indicate direction towards 9600+.

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. Price has again turned from lower band. Upper band is at around 8900 at the moment.

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is up and counts up to 8930 are open. Support seems around 8700 and bearish signals can be taken only below that level on this time frame.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Sunday, 5 April 2015

Nifty P&F Analysis: Low Pole

Low Pole!!

Date: 5th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8586.25

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole occurred with close above 8530 that we discussed during last week. This has made setup neutral from bearish. Price has not breached 45 degree objective line hence downtrend is not established and low pole in a uptrend is a bullish setup. But I prefer fresh double top buy signal after low pole to go long. Price going above 8730 in current column itself will trigger a long call as well. Bears need this low pole to be negated for trading shorts.

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. It has turned multiple times from lower band in this uptrend and need to see if it will do it again to test the upper band.

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 8500 discussed during last write up achieved even during truncated week. Trend is up on this time frame. Currently it is testing the Anchor Point which may act as a resistance. Is this a nice affordable shorting opportunity? Should I short here being at Anchor Point? NO. Resistance is our assumption and we need to wait for pattern to give us a trade.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe