Nifty Point & Figure analysis

Nifty P&F Analysis!!

Date: 1st November 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8065.80

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. High pole got formed when price went below 8205 which was the trigger to exit longs as discussed during last week. Retracement has exceeded 100% of previous swing move to form 100% pole. Price is trading below 45 degree trend line hence setup has become bearish but Double bottom sell signal would provide confirmation. Hence a bounce not going above 8180 (mid column value) would provide a trading opportunity to bears. Interestingly, current formation is bearish broadening formation followed after bullish broadening formation that indicates difficult phase for trend followers.

Hourly Min Chart

Figure 2 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with hourly closing prices. 8130 and 8190 are resistance levels if price witness bounce from here (Trend line & Anchor point). Previous bear trap can provide short term support around 7960 as shown in the chart. 7820 is cluster of support levels where one should look for bullish setup.

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. This indicator was major reason I wrote not to initiate fresh longs. I believe that breadth analysis is the vital tool in any kind of a trading kit. Indicator is at 38% now which is a neutral zone.

Figure 4 is 0.50% box P&F chart of Nifty plotted with closing prices. This chart was discussed during last post with reason for expecting a resistance. It has worked well.

   

In brief

Setup is turning bearish. Follow through will generate trading opportunity. 8130, 8190 on the higher side and 7960, 7820 on the lower side are key reference levels for the reasons mentioned above.

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty Point & Figure Analysis!!

Date: 25th October 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8295.45

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Chart has not moved much during last week. Trend is up and formation is bullish but approaching a resistance zone placed near 8400. High pole will get formed at 8205 which is the exit level for longs.

Hourly Min Chart

Figure 2 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with hourly closing prices. Chart is bullish for short term & momentum traders. 8370, 8460 are active counts but at the same time they may act as a supply zone as well because of several formations that took place around same levels in the past. Price pattern will confirm the supply zone. 

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. 70% stocks from Nifty 50 are bullish.

Figure 4 is 0.50% box P&F chart of Nifty plotted with closing prices. It shows the current broader picture of Nifty. Price witnessed sharp sell off after Quadruple bottom formation below 8357 during August 2015. Price is approaching breakout level of that formation which is expected to act as a resistance though temporary.  

   

In brief

Charts remain bullish. But approaching resistance zone. Price pattern will confirm the supply and whether it remains temporary or lock an intermediate top. Exit level for current longs is 8205. Fresh longs should wait for the opportunity. 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F Analysis!!

Date: 19th October 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8238.15

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Current formation is bullish and trend is up. 8490 is an active count though there is Anchor point resistance at 8400. Close below 8170 will form High pole which is an exit trigger for longs.

Hourly Min Chart

Figure 2 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with hourly closing prices. Bullish inverted head & shoulder formation is at bottom that places horizontal count at 8460.

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. 74% stocks from Nifty 50 are bullish which is an overbought zone. A pause or correction in short term is possible. 'M' type formation leaving overbought zone in Breadth indicator usually follows some sharp correction. 

In brief

8400+ looks possible. But breadth is at overbought position hence fresh longs should wait for the next signal. Exit level for current longs is placed at 8170 at the moment. 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty Point & Figure Analysis

Neutral!!

Date: 20th September 2015

Nifty last closing price: 7981.90

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices.  

         

·         Last Pattern: Double top buy after 100% Pole (Bullish)

·         Last Column: Bullish

·         45 degree trend: Bearish

·         Active counts: 7480, 8180

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute.

8110-8120 are important levels on the higher side whereas 7840 and 7790 is the reference zone on the lower side.

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty. Current reading of 72% is indicating overbought zone in near term. 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty Point & Figure analysis

Neutral!!
Date: 13th September 2015

Nifty last closing price: 7789.30

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices.      

·         Last Pattern: Low Pole (Bullish)

·         Last Column: Bullish

·         45 degree trend: Bearish

·         Active counts: 7480

 

Close above 7830 will form Bullish 100% Pole pattern which can be traded with stoploss placed at column reversal.

 

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 7845- 7865 discussed during last post. Price high of the week was 7864.85. Support area at lower side are placed at 7745 and 7650 as shown in the chart.

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. Reading is 64% at the moment which is neutral. This indicator helped us last week to read oversold markets though trend was down. Price witnessed sharp bounce.

 

 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty Point & Figure analysis

Downtrend approaching Oversold!!
Date: 6th September 2015

Nifty last closing price: 7655.05

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

 

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices.  

 

·         Last Pattern: Double Bottom Sell (Bearish)

 

·         Last Column: Bearish

 

·         45 degree trend: Bearish

 

·         Active counts: 7480

·         Short exit level: 7740

 

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

 

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 7845- 7865 is resistance area.

 

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. It is at 16% indicate strong downtrend but oversold markets.

 

 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty Point & Figure analysis

'O' (Bears) in control!!

Date: 30th August 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8001.95

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices.  

 

·         Last Pattern: Double Bottom Sell (Bearish)

 

·         Last Column: Bullish

 

·         45 degree trend: Bearish

 

·         Active counts: 7760, 7480

 

·         Short exit level: 8155

 

Short exit level is marked at 8155 at the moment being mid value of long column of that will trigger low pole. However same will be trailed down with every new 'O'.

 

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 7865 - 7675 are areas to watch in the lower side. 8050 and 8125 are key resistance areas where fresh short positions can be built.

 

Figure 3 is X-Percent P&F Breadth indicator of Nifty 50. It has come back to neutral zone of 60% indicating affordable setup for bearish traders who are looking for opportunity.

 

 

 

- Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.