Wednesday 18 June 2014

Nifty P&F analysis: P&F column squeeze, Basic signals can guide!!

P&F column squeeze, Basic signals can guide!!
Date: 19th June 2014

High of 7700.05!! No, I am not that precise in targets. In fact achievement of a bullish count in an uptrend is treated as a bullish event. Nifty is trading around 7550 this morning after recording the high on 11th June.

Figure 1 is 10 box value P&F chart plotted with closing prices. Interesting setup of column squeeze is developed in this chart. Call it triangle, sideways or anything else. This squeeze is expected to be followed by expansion. Price trend is up and trading way above bullish line.

Figure 2 is 10 box value P&F chart plotted with High Low prices. Price is trading above 20 column average line since breakout happened at 6300 levels. Circled area shows the price noise and intraday day volatility. Last several sessions must have been difficult for lower time frame traders.

This setup of column squeeze provides excellent opportunity to trade P&F basic signals of Double top buy and Double bottom sell. Various assumptions and analysis must be around to call it top or pull back. One side will be proved wrong upon price breakout. We want signal from price to follow. The narrowing columns make stop closure. Worry of breakout signal proving false or trap can be dealt by making column reversal as an exit strategy if breakout column happens to be long. Current range is 7640 – 7530 on closing basis.


 
Figure 1: Nifty 10 x 3 CL Point and Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 10 x 3 HL Point and Figure Chart



 -  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe



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