Nifty P&F analysis: Price below 45 degree!!

Date: 26th April 2015

 

Nifty last closing price: 8305.25

 

 

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

 

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Price has gone below 45 degree line for the first time since breakout of 6330. Downtrend is established and setup has turned negative with open lower counts of 8120 and  7930. Double  bottom sell signal followed by High Pole formation is signal to trade short. Stop for short trades is at 8430 at the moment. 'O's become dearer in downtrend and resistances are to be looked at instead of supports.

 

Figure 4 is backtested numbers of current negative setup below 10 column moving average in Nifty. It has worked 85% of time. 

 

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

 

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is down with Anchor points placed at 8405 and 8430 which are expected to act as resistance.  

 

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

 

 

Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



Figure 3: Nifty dly candlestick chart

Image 1: Backtesting numbers of negative setup in Nifty

-  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis

Date: 19th April 2015

 

Nifty last closing price: 8606.00

 

 

Daily chart (Medium - Intermediate trend)

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. All days remained in column of 'O' during last week. As discussed, column turning to 'O' after Bullish engulfing pattern is an exit signal for long trades. But current bearish column is still above mid value of previous column of 'X' hence last pattern is still bullish. Price closing below 8590 will form High Pole at current column and make it bearish. I don't prefer to short at High Pole but at subsequent signal. Hence chart is absolutely neutral at the moment for positional and medium term traders. Previous support of 8840 discussed during previous write ups has worked as resistance for this rally. Close above 8840 will activate the bullish count of 9600+. Close below 8340 will not only negate that bullish count but also breach 45 degree bullish line that will turn intermediate trend to down and enable short trades.

 

1 Min Chart (Short term trend)

Figure 2 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend turned down and breached 45 degree line earlier in the last week. Chart remained 'smooth'  thereafter and continued with bearish setups. Lower time frame is bearish with open counts up to 8495.

 

In brief, charts are neutral at the moment for medium term traders and bearish for short term traders.

 

Figure 1: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

Figure 2: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point & Figure Chart

 

-  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F analysis: Bullish Engulfing!!

Bullish Engulfing!!

Date: 12th April 2015

 

Nifty last closing price: 8780.35

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole turned to Bullish Engulfing pattern when price closed above 8730 meaning that current column of 'X' has completely retraced previous column of 'O'. This has made setup bullish from neutral. Interesting point with engulfing is that one can trade it with stop placed at column reversal meaning exit longs if column of 'O' occurs from here. This makes trade affordable. It is interesting to see that 45 degree objective line has not tested even for once since Nifty has given breakout above 6330. Mid value of current column is reference point for bullish pattern which is placed at 8570 at the moment. Bearish column that remain above this level will add strength to the bullishness because next buy signal will activate count from current column of 'X' that will indicate direction towards 9600+.

 

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. Price has again turned from lower band. Upper band is at around 8900 at the moment.

 

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. Trend is up and counts up to 8930 are open. Support seems around 8700 and bearish signals can be taken only below that level on this time frame.

Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



Figure 2: Nifty dly 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart

 

-  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.

Nifty P&F Analysis: Low Pole

Low Pole!!

Date: 5th April 2015

Nifty last closing price: 8586.25

Daily chart

Figure 1 is 10 box P&F chart plotted with daily closing prices. Low Pole occurred with close above 8530 that we discussed during last week. This has made setup neutral from bearish. Price has not breached 45 degree objective line hence downtrend is not established and low pole in a uptrend is a bullish setup. But I prefer fresh double top buy signal after low pole to go long. Price going above 8730 in current column itself will trigger a long call as well. Bears need this low pole to be negated for trading shorts.

 

Figure 2 is same chart plotted with 10 c Bollinger Bands. I shared this chart earlier also when price touched lower band recently. It has turned multiple times from lower band in this uptrend and need to see if it will do it again to test the upper band.

 

1 Min Chart

Figure 3 is 5 box P&F chart plotted with closing prices of every minute. 8500  discussed during last write up achieved even during truncated week. Trend is up on this time frame. Currently it is testing the Anchor Point which may act as a resistance. Is this a nice affordable shorting opportunity? Should I short here being at Anchor  Point? NO. Resistance is our assumption and we need to wait for pattern to give us a trade.

 



Figure 1: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



Figure 2: Nifty daily 10 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



Figure 3: Nifty 1 min 5 x 3 cl Point and Figure Chart



 

-  Prashant Shah, CMT, CFTe

 

 

Disclaimer:
All information provided above is for general information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company or Author shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of information provided above. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The readers of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information.